PRIMARY TALK: Primaries – should they be regulated?

I often hear people remark on the much maligned Presidential primary system that there is really nothing that can be done about it. Primaries are for private organizations and that’s that.

Well I 100% disagree.  First, the laws have been passed to favor the two-party incumbent system. Essentially, making it nearly impossible for a third party candidate to enter the race. There have been a few exceptions, Ross Perot being one. But most of the exceptions are usually a mere splinter segment of another party – “Bull Moose” anyone?

For that reason alone, and the affect it has on our presidential election, I would feel it acceptable to regulate the process.

But when you factor in the millions of dollars that is spent on such things as candidate security and conventions. Than I believe the case for regulation is even furthered.

http://go.bloomberg.com/political-capital/2012-06-08/who-pays-for-the-conventions-we-all-do/

Here are my thoughts:

All primaries occur on the same date. No more of this game where 20 candidates run, and by the time people like us Pennsylvanians get to vote we are left with one choice.  Perhaps let caucuses run one month prior. And while it’s not a total fix by far, this would do a LOT to clean up the American political system. And it’s not asking a lot.

And if this can’t be agreed to. Than ZERO public money should be used on the process. Yes, that’s right. Zero. And if Romney is afraid of being assassinated, than he needs to pay for his own security detail.  The Secret Service remain out of the process entirely until the candidates are officially candidates for the position of POTUS.

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Published in: on June 20, 2012 at 2:36 pm  Leave a Comment  
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Primary Talk: Broken Primaries and Brokered Conventions

I had a thought a while back, and it’s rather interesting to see that thought is growing on many people’s minds. Is there potential for something surprising to come out of this primary. And I think there is…

I’m not a big fan of Romney, there are aspects of Newt I like, but many more aspects make him a toad. Santorum, stands for many issues I believe in, but then does it in ways I dislike. 

Ron Paul, of all candidates is the one who in recent years has caused me the most reflection and self re-evaluation of what I believe to be right – and why.  To me, he is the only candidate who would likely shake things up.

The primaries are confusing things.  Many don’t even realize that often they’re voting in nothing more than a “straw poll” which declares who is popular at the moment. And that the real election is by the delegates. Each state handles this differently. Some states require all delegates to vote according to the polls while others do not. Furthermore, there are numerous “party members” who get to vote as an establishment – something I fundamentally disagree with.

All that said, this election has the potential to go in an unusual direction. The media has repeated called for Romney. But Romney has had some big/surprising losses both to Newt and Santorum. (And there is a good chance Maine should have gone to Ron Paul.) These set backs weaken his total dominance. It also shows that the Republican party vote is extremely split. If this trend continues with Newt and Santorum winning a few here and there. The balance could be shaped in which none of the candidates have the necessary delegates (1,144) to win the nomination on their own.

This results in a “brokered convention”, in which all delegates are allowed to vote freely if bound and in which the delegates of weaker candidates are encouragage to support the stronger candidates. Now if Romney or another candidate does go on to achieve the 1,144 necessary delegate votes. There is no brokering. But if not…things could get real fun and interesting.

There seems to be a growing speculation as to whether a brokered ticket featuring Mitt Romney & Ron Paul could come of this.  And there are some peculiarities that might hint at that possibility.  Areas to which speculators point to:

  1. The fact that very little mud-slinging has occurred between the two candidates.
     
  2. The two candidates have been seen as very cordial to each other off camera.Rumor has it their wives became friends in the 2008 campaign. So that might account for a lot…but it could also be a bridge.
     
  3. A combined ticket might be more likely to defeat President Obama.
     
  4. Even in some contentious situations (ie: Maine caucus), Ron Paul has chosen not to raise a stink on irregularities.
     
  5. Ron Paul’s campaign has been organizing to take win delegate seats. Rumors persist that he is gaining more delegates than he would normally receive based on polls. And may have a fairly strong delegate hand.

So could we see a Romney/Paul ticket?  Maybe….but I’m not so sure.

  1. Ron Paul and Romney differ on many viewpoints.
  2. If Romney wins the delegates, I doubt he’d make such a compromise.
  3. Ron Paul is seen by many to be outside the mainstream.
  4. It’s all just speculation and rumor.
  5. Age…Ron Paul is older than the rest of the candidates running.

Why it might happen and might even work?

  1. To be frank, I do not believe Romney can beat President Obama. Nor do I believe Santorum or Gingrich can, in fact, as much as I like Ron Paul – I doubt he’d be able to bring about a win over President Obama.  But, quite a while back, I postulated a Romney/Paul ticket would have a much better change of winning.  Ron Paul might lose half his supporters. But he also swings a small portion of the Democrat vote. And when we’re talking 2%-3% margins of win. A mere 1%-2% percentage points shifted can make all the difference. 
     
  2. Adding Ron Paul to the ticket is unlikely to seriously hurt Romney.  Sure, there are some staunch establishment conservatives who dislike Ron Paul.  But in those circles Romney can dismiss their fears by pointing to Vice President Biden as an example of the office of VP being essentially meaningless. Besides, those not liking Paul are more to be voting “against Obama”; so little negative affect will be seen vote wise. 
     
  3. Ron Paul might be seeking a Romney/Paul ticket. But he might not be seeking it for himself?  Could he be pursuing the addition of his son, Rand Paul, to the ticket?  The Kentucky Senator is younger, more junior than Romney, and doesn’t bring quite the same baggage & stigma that Ron Paul carries. Furthermore, he’s more photogenic – and that’s a big plus in modern elections.

If we do see a Mitt Romney/Rand Paul ticket – don’t be surprise. Just kick back, nuke some popcorn, and enjoy what will be a much more interesting election.

ROMNEY/PAUL 2012

Primary Talk: Young chooses old…

Ron Paul repeatedly winning the vote of the younger generations.

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/01/31/what-is-so-appealing-about-ron-paul-to-young-voters/

Please understand, in no way do I think Ron Paul is the perfect candidate. I have a few issues with his stances, namely, the fact that I am opposed to state rights. I believe individual rights trump both state and Federal and that the point of the two governments is to be in constant opposition to protect the rights of the individual.

That said, the media (& his own party’s) repeated attempts to silence Ron Paul and his message, leads one to be concerned about the system.  Today, CNN casually leaves Ron Paul off the tally listing. I could understand if they simply include Romney and Gingrich. But they included Santorum, who had one win and less delegates than Ron Paul.

But here is the interesting case study. I’ve noticed that election after election that Ron Paul is winning the young vote 29 and under, and a lot of the mid-30’s crowds as well.

What does this say?  Some are finally starting to talk about this trend.

I am of the opinion that Ron Paul is really the 2016 candidate. But he will probably be too old to run at that point.

What do I think is leading to this support?

1. He is the only candidate talking about getting rid of America’s debt. The younger generations understand they’re going to inherit this debt.  Who wants to inherit your parent’s credit card debt. When grandpa says let’s pay it off, I’m with grandpa.

2. He is the only one addressing the issue of the American empire and militarism.  What many criticize him for as “isolationism”, but is in fact merely non-imperial behavior. Ron Paul supports free trade, diplomacy. I think this approach makes greater sense to me. I see how we’ve handled Cuba. 1/2 a century of embargo and zero effect or achievement of goals. I believe the sanctions are the wrong approach. That increasing trade relations would do more to bring down the regime and further change.  We can look to China, which is still no rose garden. But it’s been the introduction to capitalism that has encouraged change, not embargoes.

3. He comes across as not part of the big entrenched government beaucracy. I think this is what a lot liked about Barack Obama as a candidate, they had the hope that he would not be a typical entrenched politician. Many have since become disappointed and disenfranchised with President Obama on these matters.

4. On a number of social issues, Ron Paul’s libertarian approach gains approval of a generation that views the world much differently than it’s predecessors. Most younger people seem to want government out of marriage. Something Ron Paul supports, perhaps for different motivations. But the results are the same.

All of this needs to be noted by the Republican party who is more and more increasingly being seen by the younger voters as an old boys club which is simply concerned about politics and elections, and not the issues. 

I think 2016 and 2020 will have very different platforms to today’s politics. The Republican party has done much to impede Ron Paul. They are failing to grasp that it is not a man, but an ideology. In truth, were the ideology to have a better figurehead than Ron Paul, I believe the primary would already be over. 

Eventually things will change regardless. A nation cannot continue to have $1 trillion deficits without eventually facing the muster.

Published in: on February 1, 2012 at 4:38 pm  Leave a Comment  
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